By The travel industry in Oceania is bouncing back, with new data from Mabrian, a global travel intelligence platform, signaling positive travel trends from key markets such as the United States, China, India, and Europe. While demand is returning to pre-pandemic levels, air connectivity across Oceania remains uneven, posing a significant challenge. These findings were presented at the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) Global Summit 2024, held from October 8-10 in Perth, Australia.
Air Connectivity Recovery: A Mixed Bag
Oceania’s geography—comprising 14 countries grouped into four macro-regions—makes air travel a vital part of tourism. However, Mabrian’s data reveals that air connectivity within the region has yet to fully recover to 2019 levels, with some areas still struggling to meet pre-pandemic capacity. A breakdown of air seat availability in the second half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019 shows:
| Region | % Change in Air Seats vs. 2019 |
|---|---|
| Polynesia | +25% |
| Australia & New Zealand | -7% |
| Melanesia | -17% |
| Micronesia | -31% |
While Polynesia has surpassed 2019 seat capacity, Micronesia, Melanesia, and parts of Australia and New Zealand are still operating below pre-pandemic levels. This lag in connectivity presents a challenge, especially since air travel is essential for tourism in this island-dominated region.
Key Destinations Outperform in Air Recovery
Amid the uneven recovery, a few standout destinations are experiencing growth in air connectivity:
- Tahiti (French Polynesia): +29% in air seats since 2019
- Nadi (Fiji): +24% since 2019, +10% year-over-year
- Sunshine Coast (Australia): +33% compared to 2019, despite a -12% dip from 2023
By contrast, Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland remain below 2019 capacity, although these hubs are seeing incremental inter-annual growth. Notably, Perth has managed to exceed pre-pandemic air seat availability by 9%, with a 13% year-over-year increase.
Travel Demand Rebounds Across Major Markets
Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index, which analyzes global flight search behavior, highlights a growing travel appetite for Oceania. Key source markets—China, India, Europe, and the United States—are showing signs of recovery or stabilization, though this growing demand has yet to be fully matched by air capacity.
Here’s a snapshot of growth in travel searches for Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland during 2024, compared to the same period last year:
- Sydney: Travel demand from India increased by 160%, China by 158%, Europe by 121%, and the U.S. by 80%.
- Melbourne: Flight searches from India tripled, while demand from China rose 158%, Europe 121%, and the U.S. 80%.
- Auckland: Searches from China grew by 86%, followed by 79% from the U.S., 70% from Europe, and 60% from India.
These trends reflect pent-up demand as travelers look to Oceania for 2024 and beyond, especially in long-haul markets.
Bridging the Gap Between Demand and Connectivity
While the recovery in travel intention is a positive sign, air connectivity remains a bottleneck. According to Mabrian, many of Oceania’s key tourism hubs are still not operating at full capacity, limiting the region’s ability to capitalize on the renewed travel interest. Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, emphasized the importance of addressing these challenges:
“The path to recovery in air capacity is slower compared to other regions like Southern Europe or Western Asia, which are already seeing a +10% to +15% increase in air seats compared to 2019.”
To bridge this gap, Cendra suggests that destinations in Oceania must proactively tap into opportunity markets—such as India, China, and the U.S.—where travel interest is surging. Building back air connectivity in line with demand will be essential for sustaining the recovery into 2025 and beyond.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Focus on Air Travel and Sustainability
Mabrian’s analysis highlights both the opportunities and obstacles facing Oceania’s tourism recovery. The steady rise in travel intention from long-haul markets offers hope for sustained growth, but the region’s reliance on air connectivity remains a critical factor. Destinations such as Fiji, Tahiti, and Perth are leading the charge, but Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland will need targeted strategies to match demand with adequate flight capacity.
As the travel industry enters 2024 with cautious optimism, the focus will remain on rebuilding connectivity, promoting sustainable tourism practices, and ensuring the right infrastructure is in place to support future growth.