By President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to “seal the border” is sending shockwaves through Colorado’s housing sector. As plans for mass deportations loom, industry experts are bracing for significant changes in construction and home prices.
Labor Shortages Threaten Construction Momentum
The housing boom might hit a snag. With Redfin predicting that deporting millions of immigrants will shrink the labor pool, builders are worried.
Immigrants make up about 30% of the construction workforce, and nearly half are undocumented, according to a Redfin report based on NAHB data. Losing this labor force could slow down projects across the state.
“We rely heavily on immigrant workers to keep up with the demand for new homes,” says Maria Lopez, a local construction manager. “Without them, timelines get pushed, and costs go up.”
Rising Material Costs Compound Affordability Issues
It’s not just labor that’s a concern. Building materials are already on the rise, and tariffs could make things worse. Here’s a quick look:
| Material | Price Increase Since 2020 |
|---|---|
| Lumber | 50% |
| Steel | 40% |
| Concrete | 35% |
| Insulation | 30% |
Trump’s proposed tariffs—60% on Chinese goods and up to 20% on others—are expected to hike these prices even more. Builders might pass these costs onto buyers, making homes pricier.
“Costs are already sky-high,” notes Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist. “Any additional tariffs will strain both builders and buyers.”
Economic Growth Takes a Hit
A weaker labor market could spell trouble for economic growth. Less construction means fewer jobs and slower economic activity. Redfin’s analysis points to potential stagnation in 2025.
- Reduced Labor Supply: Fewer workers available for construction
- Weaker Labor Market: Less income circulating in the economy
- Slower Economic Growth: Impacts beyond just housing
This domino effect could lead to rising unemployment and lower consumer spending, further dampening the housing market.
Political Pushback and Industry Responses
Not everyone’s on board with the border sealing strategy. Vice President-elect JD Vance isn’t shy about his thoughts.
“People say, Americans won’t do those jobs for low wages,” Vance stated on a recent podcast. “But they will, just at the right pay.” He added that relying solely on domestic workers might not be feasible.
Meanwhile, some builders are exploring alternatives. Increased automation and prefabricated materials are on the rise as potential solutions to labor shortages. However, these options come with their own set of challenges and costs.
“We’re looking into every possible avenue to keep projects moving,” says Lopez. “It’s a tough situation, but we’re adapting as best we can.”