By The UK housing market is showing signs of recovery as we move into the fourth quarter of 2024, thanks to a recent decrease in mortgage interest rates. The latest RICS Residential Survey for August 2024 highlights a positive shift in buyer demand and sales activity, spurred by the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates from 5.25% to 5%. This reduction has made mortgages more affordable, encouraging more people to enter the housing market. However, the supply of available homes remains a challenge, with limited listings pushing prices higher.
Rising Buyer Demand
The fall in interest rates has led to a noticeable increase in buyer demand. According to the RICS survey, a net balance of +15% of respondents reported an improvement in new buyer enquiries in August, up from +4% in July. This surge in interest is a clear indication that lower mortgage rates are making homeownership more accessible. The increased affordability of mortgages has particularly benefited first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their current living situations.
Despite the rise in demand, the supply of available homes has not kept pace. While there was a modest increase in new property listings, with a net balance of +7% of surveyors noting an uptick in August, it is still not enough to meet the heightened demand. This imbalance between supply and demand is putting upward pressure on house prices, making it a challenging market for buyers. The competition for available properties is fierce, leading to higher offers and quicker sales.
The rental market is also feeling the effects of increased demand. With more people looking to buy homes, rental properties are in high demand as well. This has resulted in rising rents, adding another layer of complexity for those seeking affordable housing options. The overall market dynamics highlight the need for more housing development to address the supply shortfall and stabilize prices.
Impact on Housing Prices
The surge in buyer demand, coupled with limited supply, has led to a notable increase in housing prices in the UK. The RICS survey indicated that a net balance of +1% of surveyors reported a rise in prices over the last quarter, the first positive movement since October 2022. This trend is expected to continue, with +14% of respondents predicting further price increases in the coming months, although not at the same strong pace observed in August.
The upward pressure on prices is a direct result of the supply-demand imbalance. As more buyers enter the market, the competition for available properties intensifies, driving prices higher. This is particularly challenging for first-time buyers, who may find it difficult to secure affordable homes. The rising prices also impact the rental market, as higher property values translate to increased rental rates.
The Bank of England’s interest rate cut has provided a boost to market confidence, but it has also highlighted the longstanding issue of insufficient housing supply. Addressing this challenge requires a concerted effort from policymakers, developers, and financial institutions to increase the availability of affordable housing. By expanding the housing stock, the market can better accommodate the growing demand and help stabilize prices.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the UK housing market is expected to remain active, driven by continued demand and favorable interest rates. The next decision on interest rates by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, scheduled for September 19, will be closely watched by market participants. Any further adjustments to interest rates could influence buyer behavior and market dynamics.
The positive outlook for the housing market is tempered by the ongoing supply challenges. While the recent increase in supply levels is a step in the right direction, more needs to be done to address the underlying issues. Policymakers and industry stakeholders must work together to implement strategies that promote housing development and ensure a balanced market.
In the meantime, buyers and renters will need to navigate a competitive market environment. Those looking to purchase homes should be prepared for potential bidding wars and higher prices, while renters may face rising rents and limited availability. By staying informed and working with experienced real estate professionals, individuals can make well-informed decisions and successfully navigate the UK housing market.